Thursday, September 28, 2006

Unleaded Gas and Elections

I'm not a big believer in conspiracy theories, but sometimes I see things that simply don't make sense to me unless I consider that powerful forces are pulling some strings.

Maybe it is just a coincidence that gas prices have dropped right before the election. Maybe it is because hurricanes haven't materialized like expected. Maybe it has to do with a new deep water discovery in the Gulf. I'm just a little fish and I have no way of knowing for sure.

Consider these facts, and make your own conclusion.

Henry_Paulson is the Treasury Secretary, nominated by George Bush. Prior to this position, he was Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs.

The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) is an index of 24 commodities and serves as a benchmark for investment in world markets.

Starting this month, the GSCI reduced the weighting of unleaded gas in the index from about 8% to a little over 2%. The press release doesn't explain why.

Institutions such as commodity trusts or mutual funds, who's funds track the GSCI, own a lot of unleaded gas futures. They are required to mirror the weighting of the index with their holdings. To maintain this weighting, they now have to sell billions in unleaded gas futures. Could this cause prices to drop?


The Goldman Sachs press release is dated August 9. Here is a crude oil chart:




In a recent poll, 42% of Americans believe that gas prices are being manipulated by the government.


What do you think?

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